As someone who spends an inordinate amount of time on the website Box Office Mojo, I find it slightly surreal and vaguely annoying to watch every culture warrior with an internet connection pronounce himself an industry analyst and issue sweeping declarations about the impact of a Twitter-verse controversy on a massive blockbuster’s bottom line.
I bring this up because of “Captain Marvel,” of course. Despite the fact that it is estimated to have grossed about $455 million around the world this weekend, $153 million of which came from the domestic box office, I was confidently informed by a number of people on Twitter that the movie was a disappointment.
I was told this is “basically bombing,” as far as a Marvel Cinematic Universe offering goes. Disney and Marvel had included Thursday night previews to falsely inflate the weekend total, the film’s critics insisted. Long-range projections had been as high as $180 million domestic, so a $160 mil-
lion opening (as the initial Friday evening estimates suggested) was bad, actually. Sunday’s grosses were down quite a bit from Saturday’s, showing weakness of word of mouth.
Each of these supposed data points is wrong. In order: This is the seventh-highest MCU opening and, outside of “Black Panther,” the best for a standalone hero’s first film. Every movie released these days includes Thursday night previews in the first Friday’s box-office grosses and has for years. Long-range tracking is a ballpark figure at best, and even then “Captain Marvel” was right in the middle of the $140 million to $180 million range suggested by Box Office Pro. Sunday is almost always the weakest day on an opening weekend.
But people being wrong on the internet is no great surprise. I asked CNN’s Frank Pallotta, who covers this stuff for a living, what cautions he would offer amateur analysts.
“Not every Marvel film needs to make the same amount of money to be a hit. If ‘Avengers: Endgame’ is the biggest opening in history next month and makes roughly $100 million more in its opening weekend than ‘Captain Marvel’ did, that doesn’t make ‘Captain Marvel’ any less of a success,” Mr. Pallotta said in an email.
Correcting all of these misconceptions is