Pittsburgh population stagnates

Recent data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows Pittsburgh’s population was basically stagnant from 2020 to 2023, and some analysts say the continuing decline of births and the migration of residents to other parts of the country could pose problems for local officials if the trends continue.

Data from the bureau this week indicate the city of Pittsburgh added 300 people from 2020 to 2023, about a 0.1% increase. Many cities across the state experienced similar changes, although Philadelphia lost more than 53,000 people in that time frame, a roughly 3.3% decline.

Even if the city’s numbers seem relatively stable, analysts say broader regional declines in population — the Post-Gazette reported in March that Allegheny County was one of the top 10 counties in the U.S. for population decline from 2022 to 2023 — remain concerning. The county lost 7,780 residents, a decline of 0.63%, in that time frame.

Jim Futrell, vice president of market research at the nonprofit Allegheny Conference on Community Development, noted the new data included a positive development with an easing of the spike in deaths seen during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Births in the 10-county southwestern region continues to decrease, though, and that’s of concern if that trend continues, Mr. Futrell said. In the mid-1990s, he noted, the Pittsburgh region became one of the first metropolitan areas in the country to enter “natural population loss,” meaning deaths exceed births on an annual basis.

With the fading of the region’s steel industry and younger people moving away for jobs elsewhere, it wasn’t surprising to see that at first, Mr. Futrell said. Now that it has persisted, it’s more worrisome, and part of a national trend, he said.

“I think we had long hoped that eventually that would level out,” Mr. Futrell said. “But what we’ve seen is that while the number of deaths in the region has remained constant, the number of births has continued to decline.”

Some areas are seeing a leveling out of populations, and even small growth in recent years. Between 2022 and 2023, the data show Pittsburgh added 456 people, a 0.15% increase. That’s not a significant gain, but not a huge loss either.

Chris Briem, a regional economist at the University of Pittsburgh’s Center for Social and Urban Research, said in an email that one way to look at this issue is to compare Pittsburgh to Westmoreland County.

While the city of Pittsburgh’s residents have gotten younger in recent years, Westmoreland County is one of the oldest metropolitan counties in the United States, and population projections show high rates of natural population decline there in the coming decades, he wrote.

Frank Gamrat, executive director of the Allegheny Institute for Public Policy, agreed that even if Allegheny County stabilizes its population, the ongoing declines in many surrounding counties in southwestern Pennsylvania are worrisome if that pattern continues.

Tax bases in communities can shrink, making it harder for governments to pay for services, he said.

It’s difficult to say where people from this region are migrating to, but it’s having an historical impact, Mr. Gamrat said.

The Census Bureau also released data related to housing in the region, although it is difficult to say what impact that might have on attracting younger people and families, Mr. Futrell and Mr. Gamrat said. Allegheny County added about 2,800 housing units last year, a 0.46% increase from 2022.

Mr. Futrell said that, ultimately, the data provides elected officials and local governments an opportunity to identify and potentially solve issues related to continued population declines.

“That’s one of those chicken-and-egg things,” he said. “Does the availability of housing help attract people, or do housing developers need population growth to justify building more housing?”